企业家学者项目（DBA）整合全球优质教育资源，打造极具前沿性和系统性课程，在框架模块、聚焦模块、专题研究+实践课堂这三大核心课程中，涵盖2大金融主题与4大微观主题，探索6大宏观方向，定制化行业专题，走访行业内领军企业。张瀛岑同学正是在理论与实践的碰撞中，收获了应对新商业文明下新问题与新挑战的能力。“理解 - 判断 - 实践 - 引领”的DBA学习之旅，让他在企业家学者项目中历经了新商业文明的一次次洗礼，完成了跨越式的思想“突围”。 

本次论文答辩，来自长江商学院和新加坡管理大学（SMU）的教授们共同见证了张瀛岑同学的学术成果。

Lily KONG

Lee Kong Chian Chair Professor of Social Sciences,SMU

Jing LIU

Professor of Accounting and Finance,CKGSB

Heli WANG

Janice Bellace Professor of Strategic Management,SMU

张瀛岑 | 多元化战略与企业破产风险：货币紧缩与IPO时间的影响

张瀛岑同学答辩中

▇ 论文摘要：

多元化经营已经成为许多企业追求的战略目标。然而，多元化经营是否真正能为企业带来稳健的业务与风险分散效应，仍是学术界与实践界共同关注的焦点。本研究立足于中国实践，实证检验了企业多元化经营与破产风险之间的关系，并进一步讨论了货币政策紧缩与多元化经营对企业破产风险的交互影响。

实证分析结果表明，企业多元化经营与破产风险在我国呈正相关关系。这一结果意味着，多元化可能并不总是为企业带来风险分散的优势，反而可能增加企业的破产风险。此外，实证结果还表明，货币政策紧缩也对企业破产风险产生了显著的正向影响。而且，这一结果在更换变量和更换模型后，仍然非常稳健。中介效应检验的结果表明，多元化通过降低企业现金持有水平，从而导致其破产。在此基础上，本研究进一步关注了其他可能影响多元化与破产风险关系的企业内部与外部因素。结果显示，企业的内部控制、融资约束及外部审计质量等都对多元化与破产风险的关系产生显著的异质性影响。具体来说，在内部控制质量较高、融资约束程度较高以及外部审计质量较差的公司中，多元化经营与货币政策紧缩对破产风险的影响尤为明显。

为了解释多元化导致破产风险增加这一结果，本研究进一步分析了企业的IPO时间对多元化与破产风险之间关系的调节效应。研究发现，新近上市的企业在IPO后的初期，由于受到市场的积极响应、较低的融资成本和新的投资机会，其多元化经营行为可能会对其带来更高的破产风险。相反，已经上市较长时间、处于更为稳定的成熟期的企业，多元化策略能够显著降低其破产风险。这个结果表明，多元化策略对不同发展阶段的企业带来的效果是不同的。

本研究揭示了在特定的宏观环境与企业内部环境下，多元化策略可能并不总是企业的最佳选择。企业在考虑扩展其业务范围时，需要评估国家货币政策、内部控制体系、融资状态及其他相关因素，以确保其战略决策能为组织带来长期的价值。本研究不仅为学术界提供了关于企业多元化策略与破产风险关系的新的认识，也为实践界提供了宝贵的战略决策参考，有助于企业在复杂多变的市场环境中做出更加明智的决策。

答辩现场

▇ ABSTRACT：

Diversification as a strategic objective has become increasingly pursued by many enterprises. However, whether diversification truly brings robust business operations and risk dispersion effects remains a focal point of attention in both academic and practical realms. This study, grounded in Chinese practice, empirically examines the relationship between corporate diversification and bankruptcy risk and further discusses the interactive impact of monetary policy tightening and diversification on corporate bankruptcy risk.

张瀛岑同学在长江DBA活动中

Empirical analysis results indicate a positive correlation between corporate diversification and bankruptcy risk in China. This finding suggests that diversification may not always confer the advantage of risk dispersion to enterprises; it could instead increase the risk of bankruptcy. Additionally, empirical results also demonstrate that monetary policy tightening has a significant positive effect on corporate bankruptcy risk. This outcome remains robust even after changing variables and models. Mediation effect tests indicate that diversification leads to bankruptcy by reducing corporate cash holdings. This study further focuses on other potential internal and external factors that may influence the relationship between diversification and bankruptcy risk. The results show that internal controls, financing constraints, and the quality of external auditing significantly influence the relationship between diversification and bankruptcy risk. Specifically, the impact of diversification and monetary policy tightening on bankruptcy risk is particularly pronounced in companies with higher internal control quality, more significant financing constraints, and poorer external audit quality.

This study further analyzes the moderating effect of a company's Initial Public Offering (IPO) timing on the relationship between diversification and bankruptcy risk. The analysis finds that newly listed companies in the initial period after IPO, due to positive market responses, lower financing costs, and new investment opportunities, may face higher bankruptcy risks from diversification activities. Conversely, companies listed longer and in a more stable maturity phase can significantly reduce their bankruptcy risk through diversification strategies. This result indicates that the effects of diversification strategies vary for companies at different developmental stages.

This research reveals that diversification strategies may not always be the best choice for enterprises in specific macroeconomic and internal environments. When considering expanding their business scope, enterprises need to assess national monetary policies, internal control systems, financing status, and other relevant factors to ensure that their strategic decisions bring long-term value to the organization. This study provides new insights into the relationship between corporate diversification strategies and bankruptcy risk for the academic community. It offers valuable strategic decision-making references for the practical realm, aiding enterprises in making wiser decisions in a complex and dynamic market environment.

合影

论文答辩圆满结束，但作为终身学习者，这是张瀛岑同学的又一个起点。未来，他将带着对中西方管理学理论的认知与思考，继续践行新商业文明；用独到的洞见不断为中国经济注入新动力，引领行业的发展方向。